Into which jobs do the unemployed move? Differences between Spaniards and foreigners in a changing economy

Abstract

This article studies the occupational attainment of those who leave unemployment. Specifically, the paper addresses the factors that explain initial differences found between foreigners and Spaniards, and examines the extent to which the economic context reduces or increases the gap between those groups. In order to do so, panel data from the Spanish Labour Force Survey from 2005 until 2010 are used. The logistic regression analyses show that, while it is important to consider various socio-demographic factors, the type of occupation in which people worked before becoming unemployed has a remarkable influence on the skill-level of subsequent jobs. Even after controlling for all relevant variables, it remains more likely for foreigners from outside EU15 to occupy the lowest positions in the labor market, regardless of the state of the economy. With regard to the risk of falling into a lower occupation relative to the last one, this is equal for all national groups in gross terms, but not when taking into account socio-demographic variables and the professional status of workers before the spent in unemployment.