Analyzing temporal variation in the lethality of ETA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3989/ris.2008.03.24Keywords:
ARIMA models, Nationalism, Political Violence, Spanish Transition, TerrorismAbstract
This article analyzes time variation in the lethal violence of the terrorist organization ETA. Given the dynamic structure of the time series of fatalities, I look at the effect of a number of independent variables (the celebration of different types of elections, anti-ETA activity by extreme right-wing organizations and the GAL, police arrests, and other relevant events, such as the referendums on the Constitution and the Statute of Autonomy of Guernica). To do so, I have estimated several ARIMA models using the time series of fatalities between 1968 and 2007. Moreover, the results obtained are complemented by a historical-political analysis of the period of maximum violence, which took place during the Spanish transition to democracy.
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