Ciclos de protesta y referéndums por la independencia. Oportunidades cerradas y el camino de la radicalización en Cataluña
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3989/ris.2019.77.4.19.005Palabras clave:
Vigilancia de protestas, Secesionismo, Referéndums, Cambio descendente de escala, Convergencia de movimientosResumen
En este artículo desarrollamos un marco interpretativo para comprender la trayectoria de radicalización en el “procés” catalán. Independientemente del estatus legal del referéndum en cuestión, las campañas de referéndum son capaces de crear, y de hecho son en sí mismas, oportunidades políticas. En contraste con las predicciones desde las teorías de los ciclos de protesta, cuando se cierran las oportunidades a nivel nacional y la represión se intensifica, no necesariamente se desarrolla un proceso de radicalización que contribuye al declive del ciclo, al menos a corto plazo. Como el caso catalán ilustra entre mediados de los años 2000 y finales de 2018, varios mecanismos pueden mediar este proceso, incluyendo la apropiación de oportunidades políticas, el cambio de escala hacia abajo y la convergencia del movimiento. Una densa red de asambleas locales de base reemplaza en el a las grandes organizaciones de la sociedad civil que hasta entonces, y especialmente durante las diadas entre 2012 y 2015, habían liderado la movilización social. Aunque estas asambleas ciudadanas han abrazado repertorios de acción más directos y disruptivos, estos han sido mayoritariamente pacíficos. Asimismo, este reemplazo ha favorecido la convergencia del movimiento, abriendo espacios donde activistas de un amplio espectro pueden movilizarse conjuntamente, y evitando de este modo una escalada violenta y la emergencia de grupos escindidos violentos (al menos hasta finales de 2018).
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