El recuerdo de voto en España. Un análisis del período 1996-2008
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3989/ris.2008.10.17Palabras clave:
Efectos de orden, Encuestas electorales, Error de cobertura, Intención de voto, No respuesta, Trabajo de campoResumen
En este trabajo examinamos el recuerdo de voto recogido por el Barómetro del Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) a lo largo de tres legislaturas. Previamente, identificaremos las posibles fuentes de error que podrían sesgarlo. Nos detendremos en la influencia de las fallas en el proceso de recuperación, el sesgo de deseabilidad social y los efectos del instrumento de medición. Seguidamente daremos cuenta de sus principales sesgos a nivel agregado en España. Comprobaremos que el paso del tiempo introduce sucesivos errores en su declaración y, específicamente, veremos que parte de los entrevistados tendería a reconstruir su recuerdo de voto a partir de su intención de voto presente. Finalmente, prestaremos atención a la posible influencia de factores a corto plazo y al impacto del trabajo de campo. Nuestro objetivo es ayudar a los investigadores que emplean el recuerdo de voto a reconsiderar sus sesgos.
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