Revista Internacional de Sociología, Vol 77, No 3 (2019)

Factores determinantes del descenso histórico de la fecundidad marital en España


https://doi.org/10.3989/ris.2019.77.3.18.051

Jesús J. Sánchez-Barricarte
Carlos III University of Madrid, España
orcid http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8015-1842

Resumen


Los resultados del Proyecto Europeo de Investigación de Princeton han sido cuestionados puesto que los cambios temporales en los niveles de fecundidad pudieron haberse hecho de manera inadecuada. Hemos comprobado la capacidad explicativa de algunas variables socioeconómicas usadas por la teoría tradicional de la transición demográfica para interpretar el descenso histórico de la fecundidad: mortalidad, nivel educativo, desarrollo económico, nivel de urbanización y empleo. Hemos recogido información para 49 provincias españolas durante un largo período temporal (1860-2001) y hemos llevado a cabo regresiones de cointegración (FMOLS y DOLS en sus siglas en inglés). Mostramos que el descenso de la mortalidad, el incremento en los niveles educativos y los factores económicos desempeñaron un papel fundamental en el descenso histórico de la fecundidad (primera transición demográfica). La teoría de la transición demográfica fue puesta en entredicho como resultado de las investigaciones llevadas a cabo por el Proyecto Europeo de Fecundidad de Princeton, pero los análisis que utilizan nuevas técnicas econométricas muestran que las variables socioeconómicas sí tuvieron realmente un papel destacado en el descenso histórico de la fecundidad. Cuando se utilizan modernos métodos estadísticos, el papel que los factores socioeconómicos vuelve a cobrar protagonismo. En el debate sobre las causas de la transición de la fecundidad, nuestros resultados obtenidos del análisis de los datos españoles nos obligan a posicionarnos con los expertos que mantienen que los cambios en las condiciones socioeconómicas animaron a las parejas a tener familias más pequeñas (teorías del ajuste).

Palabras clave


Datos de panel; España; Factores económicos; Nivel provincial; Primera transición demográfica

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