Revista Internacional de Sociología, Vol 76, No 4 (2018)

La competición espacial en Europa tras la Gran Recesión. Un análisis de las posiciones ideológicas ideales y reales en Italia, España y Francia


https://doi.org/10.3989/ris.2018.76.4.18.002

María Dolores García Sanz
Universidad de Salamanca, España
orcid http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1430-3603

Iván Llamazares
Universidad de Salamanca, España
orcid http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2947-6830

María Aurora Manrique García
Universidad de Salamanca, España
orcid http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3326-2264

Resumen


Los sistemas de partidos europeos han experimentado grandes cambios en las últimas décadas. Especialmente importantes en este sentido han sido el castigo electoral de los partidos gobernantes, la activación política de las actitudes populistas y la emergencia de nuevos partidos. Estos fenómenos han estado fuertemente condicionados por la intensidad de la crisis económica experimentada por los países europeos. Los análisis que se presentan aquí examinan las principales características de la competición ideológica y espacial después de la Gran Recesión en España, Francia e Italia. Nuestro análisis compara las posiciones ideológicas reales (percibidas por todos los votantes) con las posiciones ideales y óptimas predichas por modelos de competición espacial basados en voto de proximidad y direccional, siempre bajo la premisa de que los partidos elegirán aquellas posiciones que les permitan maximizar su porcentaje de votos. Nuestro análisis intenta estimar el grado en el que las actitudes públicas conectadas a la Gran Recesión, en particular la evaluación de los gobiernos y las actitudes populistas, han afectado a las posiciones ideológicas de los partidos. Nuestros resultados indican que hay diferencias apreciables entre las estimaciones derivadas de modelos que usan variables conectadas a la crisis y aquellas basadas en modelos que no usan tales variables. Asimismo, este análisis muestra que las estimaciones basadas en modelos que utilizan las evaluaciones de rendimiento gubernamental y las actitudes populistas están ligeramente más cercanas a las posiciones reales de los partidos políticos. Finalmente, nuestro análisis muestra que las diferencias en las estimaciones ideales entre los modelos que usan tales variables y los que no las usan son mayores en España e Italia, esto es, en los dos países que sufrieron más acusadamente la Gran Recesión.

Palabras clave


Actitudes populistas; Competición partidista; Europa; Gran Recesión; Ideología; Voto espacial

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